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產品技術取代與市場競爭模式之研究-以全球CRT、LCD 及PDP TV 銷售為例

The Research of Technology Replacement and Market Competition Model  Case of Global Shipment for CRT,LCD and PDP TV

作者:王錫澤
畢業學校:國立成功大學
出版單位:國立成功大學
核准日期:2009-11-19
類型:Electronic Thesis or Dissertation
權限:Copyright information available at source archive--National Cheng Kung University....

中文摘要

傳統 CRT TV 因尺寸的加大會導致過於笨重的缺點,以及數位電視興起而造成電視市場的重大變革,因此符合此需求之薄型平面電視便應運而生,尤其是面板廠商大規模的投入電漿與液晶電視的產出,更造成薄型平面電視蓬勃發展,然而此現象卻同時引發了電漿與液晶電視兩種電視技術彼此爭奪市場佔有率的競爭局面。
本研究以擴散模式為基礎,並結合人口成長的變動會影響潛在的使用者人數,進而會影響市場潛量的假設來建構產品擴散取代之預測模式,並應用於CRT 及LCD TV 電視市場產品的擴散取代效應進行分析。在探討PDP與LCD TV 兩者之間的動態競爭關係,採用競爭模式擴散系統-Lotka-Volterra 競爭模式,並藉由Lyapunov 函數進行均衡點之穩定性分析探討。結果顯示,對於首次購買的消費者而言,CRT TV 已非首選,而是轉而購買LCD TV。然而對於已持有CRT TV 的消費者,LCD TV 尚未造成促使消費者立即取代CRT TV 的動機。在產品的競爭方面,LCD TV是扮演獵物的角色,而PDP TV 則是扮演掠食者的角色。均衡分析方面,PDP TV 不會從市場消失,而是和LCD TV 維持均衡的關係。

英文摘要

The size of CRT TV has always been limited by their bulk. However, the introduction of flat plane display TV has led to much larger screens, new rounds of technological innovation, large-scale investment and an increasing share of the consumer market. Moreover, this development has spurred competition for market share between LCD TV and PDP TV. On the basis of diffusion model and the premise of population growth on variable market potential, this study establishes a model of forecast for technology replacement. This proposed model is further applied to investigate the replacement of CRT and LCD TV with empirical analysis. This study further intends to investigate the dynamic competitive relationship between PDP and LCD TV by means of the quarterly shipment of TV. The Lotka-Volterra competition diffusion model has been adopted to conduct the empirical analysis, with the Lyapunov function used to carry out equilibrium and stability analysis.
Those who purchase TVs for the first time are apt to be more attractive to LCD TV than CRT TV. As for those who have already owned a CRT TV, the intention is not strong enough to allure them to replace current CRT TV with a new LCD TV. In the competitive relationship we can regard the LCD TV as a prey and the PDP TV as the predator. With respect to the equilibrium and stability analysis, PDP TV will not disappear from the market, but will instead reach stable equilibrium with LCD TV.


指導教授 - 耿伯文

口試委員 - 吳植森

口試委員 - 葉榮懋

口試委員 - 李昇暾

口試委員 - 林清河


 

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