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臺灣總統選舉對股市報酬的影響

The Influence of Presidential Elections on Stock Market Returns in Taiwan

作者:陳政賢
畢業學校:國立高雄第一科技大學
出版單位:國立高雄第一科技大學
核准日期:2016-01-15
類型:Electronic Thesis or Dissertation
權限:Copyright information available at source archive--nkfust....

中文摘要

本研究採用1996年03月23日至2012年01月14日的五次臺灣總統選舉,使用台灣加權指數為指標,分析其對國內股市投資報酬率的影響。並使用事件分析、敘述統計、相關性檢定、單一樣本t檢定、成對樣本t檢定…等研究方法,建構一愷切的統計分析,針對歷次總統選舉事件發生前後,對台灣股市的影響程度!
透過事件分析,得到在選舉事件發生前後,其對股市均有程度不一的影響。尤其在首次民選總統、首次政黨輪替時,其影響數據更為明顯。
然而在相關性檢定、單一樣本t檢定、成對樣本t檢定的研究上,卻在整體上無證據可資證明股市的波動與選舉事件有明顯相關。

英文摘要

This study analyzed the effects of elections on the return on investment in domestic stock market by using the index of TAIEX, which was based on last five presidential elections in Taiwan from March 23rd, 1996 to January 14th, 2012. By using events analysis, description statics, correlation test, one sample t-test, two-sample t-test and other research methods to construct a methodology of statistical analysis for the degree of impact on Taiwan stock market, before and after the presidential elections.
By using the events analysis showed that is varying degrees of influence on the stock market, before and after the elections. Particularly, the data revealed significant effect when the first direct presidential election and the first alternation of ruling party.
However, the study results using correlation test, one sample t-test and two-sample t-test methods showed no evidence to prove that there was significant correlation between the volatility of stock market and the election events.


召集委員 - 翁銘章

委員 - 蔡明智

委員 - 紀宗利

委員 - 陳青浩

指導教授 - 林明俊


 

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